Working gas in storage was 2,334 Bcf as of Friday, March 1, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 40 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 280 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 551 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,783 Bcf. At 2,334 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
While El Niño conditions continue with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the total subsurface ocean heat content anomaly across the equatorial Pacific has dropped to near zero, signaling an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions. The atmospheric circulation across the global tropics is consistent with the ongoing El Niño though, and El Niño is forecast to impact the circulation for the March-April-May season with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions later in the spring and early summer. La Niña conditions are forecast to likely develop later in summer or by autumn.
The March-April-May (MAM) 2024 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the northwestern Contiguous United States (CONUS), including the Pacific Northwest, northern to central California, parts of the Great Basin, and the northern Rockies. Above-normal temperatures are favored across the northern CONUS, including the northern Great Plains, Great Lakes region, and Northeast. The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures is for the Pacific Northwest, where the probabilities of above-normal temperatures exceed 60 percent. Above-normal temperatures are favored across Alaska. Equal chances (EC) of above-, near- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures are indicated across the southern CONUS, where El Niño impacts increase the chances of below- and near-normal temperatures, while decadal time scale trends increase the likelihood of above-normal temperatures.
The MAM 2024 precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while above-normal precipitation is favored from the eastern Central Plains across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, associated with lingering impacts due to El Niño. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for parts of northwestern and southern Mainland Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is favored for much of the Rio Grande Valley. EC of below-, near- and above-normal total seasonal precipitation are depicted by remaining areas in white.