Working gas in storage was 3,705 Bcf as of Friday, October 11, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 76 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 107 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 163 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,542 Bcf. At 3,705 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions remain present, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (SON) 2024 (60% chance) and is forecast to persist through January-March (JFM) 2025. Any La Niña event that develops this autumn is favored, however, to be a weak short duration event.
The November-January (NDJ) 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from the Southwest eastward to include most of the central U.S. and all of the eastern CONUS. The largest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast for parts of the Southwest. There also is an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures for northern Alaska. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of southern Alaska.
The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of below-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts along most of the southern tier of the CONUS and for parts of southeast Mainland Alaska and Alaska Panhandle. The greatest odds of below-normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent) are forecast for parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains. Slight tilts toward above-normal precipitation is depicted for parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, central Great Lakes, and western and northern Alaska.
Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal total precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.