Working gas in storage was 2,584 Bcf as of Friday, February 2, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 75 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 187 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 248 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,336 Bcf. At 2,584 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
El Niño conditions continue with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric response across the global tropics is consistent with the ongoing El Niño. El Niño is forecast to persist through March-April-May with a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions later in the spring and summer.
The February-March-April (FMA) 2024 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, northern to central California, parts of the Great Basin, northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. The highest forecast confidence for above-normal temperatures exists for the Pacific Northwest and much of Alaska. Below-normal temperature probabilities are slightly elevated across southeastern New Mexico and western to central Texas. Near-normal temperatures are favored for much of the Southeast.
The FMA 2024 precipitation outlook depicts elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation for southern California, the desert Southwest, the central to southern Plains, the Southeast, and much of the East Coast. The Southeast is the most likely area to have above-normal precipitation. Above-normal precipitation is also favored for parts of southern Alaska and the North Slope of Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest and from the Great Lakes south to the Ohio Valley.
Areas depicted in white and labeled “Equal-Chances” or “EC” are regions where climate signals are weak, and so there are equal chances for either above-, near- or below-normal seasonal mean temperatures or total precipitation amounts.