GAS FUTURESPJM ELECTRICMISO ELECTRICGAS INVENTORYSHORT-TERM WEATHERMID-TERM WEATHER

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Working gas in storage was 3,097 Bcf as of Friday, June 21, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 52 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 314 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 528 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,569 Bcf. At 3,097 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

 

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The final El Niño Advisory was recently issued in the 17 June 2024 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Outlook. Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions are present with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above average in the west-central Pacific Ocean, near average in the east-central Pacific Ocean, and below-average in the far eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña watch is now in effect as La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (JAS, 65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January, NDJ).

The JAS 2024 Temperature Outlook favors above normal temperatures for much of the contiguous United States (CONUS), with the strongest probabilities reaching 70 to 80% over parts of the four corners region. Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures reaching 60 to 70% are found over the Gulf Coast. In contrast, equal-chances (EC) of above, near, and below normal temperatures are favored over the west coast of the CONUS. Below normal temperatures are indicated over southwestern Alaska, transitioning to above normal over the northeast part of the state.

Below normal precipitation is favored over parts of the western and central CONUS in JAS 2024, excepting over the West Coast where EC is favored. Above normal precipitation is forecast for southeastern Texas, the Gulf States, and along the Eastern Seaboard into New England with the highest probabilities (50 to 60%) along parts of the Gulf Coast and Florida. Above normal precipitation is also indicated over western Alaska. For the remaining areas of the CONUS, where possible seasonal total precipitation amounts are predicted to be similar to climatological probabilities, EC is forecast.