Working gas in storage was 3,269 Bcf as of Friday, September 15, 2023, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 64 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 410 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 183 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,086 Bcf. At 3,269 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

 

The October-November-December (OND) 2023 temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures for Alaska, the western third of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), the Northeast, Great Lakes, parts of the Southern Plains, Florida, and the immediate Gulf and East Coasts. The largest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast across the North Slope of Alaska. Above normal temperatures are also likely (probabilities greater than 50 percent) for parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.

The OND 2023 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation amounts across the Southeast, Southern Plains, and parts of the mid-Atlantic states as well as northern and western Alaska. The greatest chances of above normal precipitation (above 50 percent probability) are indicated for parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

El Niño conditions are present, as represented in current oceanic and atmospheric observations. A continuation of El Niño is extremely likely this Fall and Winter, with over a 95 percent chance through January-February-March (JFM) 2024. Additionally, a strong El Niño is likely by late Fall and early Winter, with approximately a 70 percent chance of occurrence during the November-December-January (NDJ) 2023-24 season.

Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.